A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
